Native River is currently trading as a strong favourite for the Hennessy Gold Cup and should certainly be suited to the galloping nature of the course. Whether or not his overall profile justifies his current place in the market is another matter altogether.
The 2016 Hennessy Gold Cup appears to be a wide open renewal with several horses holding broadly similar chances. Native River is certainly one of the main seven or eight contenders for this grade three handicap; nevertheless, I am struggling to see how he holds stronger claims compared with several rivals currently trading at much bigger odds.
I suppose fans of pounds per lengths theories might point to his beating of Un Temp Pour Tout at the same course and at this same meeting last year. He beat the Pipe horse comfortably on the day and is now 10 lbs better off having won that novice chase by nearly four lengths.
In four of his five races since he has performed in a manner which would see him struggle to justify his short odds. The exception being when he beat Henry Parry Morgan with something to spare at Aintree in April. Over this longer trip and on such a galloping track, I doubt there will be much between them on Saturday. The Peter Bowen horse is trading at more than twice the price of Native River and the discrepancy in their places in the Hennessy market overstates any potential difference in their respective chances in my opinion.
I hold broadly similar views with regards to the claims of Saphir Du Rheu, Vyta Du Roc and Blaklion who can all be backed at double the odds of the Tizzard favourite; furthermore, it would be no surprise to see old Hennessy stalwarts Houblon Des Obeaux and Theatre Guide on the premises in between the final two flights and therefore belying their current 20/1 odds.
Native River is a quirky character and he has not always appeared the most resilient in a finish. It is interesting to remember that he was not thought quick enough for the RSA Chase and was instead stepped up to compete over four miles at the festival. He even managed to appear to be outpaced on that occasion before he rallied and finished full of running in the closing stages. His apparent lack of pace looks more to do with what is going on between his ears from where I am looking.
The race looks too tough for me to want to get financially involved in; however, wherever he finishes in the big race on Saturday – and he certainly is capable of winning on a going day – I would much prefer to leave him alone at around 5/1. Moreover, I think there is room for him to drift between now and race time due to the number of viable contenders with broadly similar claims to his own.
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Customer Feedback 22/11/2016
Just wanted to say thank you for Royal Vacation. I was pleasantly surprised by the price last night and the fact that Minella On Line was at the time favourite. I took the liberty of watching its last few races and did not feel that it was the one to beat at all. Its jumping was very inconsistent and wasn’t surprised to see it fall. I was only slightly concerned with the state of the ground and Delany Demon’s ability to handle it.
