Tornado Flyer
26th December 2021 – Kempton – This was only his second try over a trip of three miles and one would imagine he will be kept to this sort of distance in the future. I do not think there can be much doubt that the race happened to pan out for him in a very positive way. He was out the back early on in a race run at a ferocious pace. The two leaders dropped away which adds to the notion they both went too fast. The time comparisons with the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase also adds plenty of substance to this supposition. Frodon was around seven or eight lengths quicker from four out to three out compared with Ahoy Senor despite being left behind from first to fifth place at this point of the race. The Nicholls pace setter was then about six seconds slower than Ahoy Senor from the third last fence to the winning post. Likewise, Tornado Flyer was more than a dozen lengths quicker than Bravemansgame from four out to three out and then in excess of 20 lengths slower than the Kauto Star winner from three out to the line. This was also the part of the race where Tornado Flyer looked most impressive. This is a reflection on how differently the two chases were run rather than a comment about one winner being superior to another.
We have plenty of previous races to consider which all suggest that Tornado Flyer is well below grade one level compared with this one new piece of evidence to suggest he has suddenly improved leaps and bounds for the step up in trip. Whilst it is possible that the extra distance has brought about some improvement; it would be surprising if Tornado Flyer has improved as much as his winning margins in the King George would imply. He is now as short as 8/1 (Non-Runner No Bet) for the Gold Cup and yet on 90% of the available evidence one would have to conclude that his single figure price seriously overestimates his Cheltenham claims at this point in time. If Tornado Flyer does something similar in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival then we may need to take another look at his profile.
Clan Des Obeaux
26th December 2021 – Kempton – He raced just behind the two pace setters and as a consequence has done very well to finish in the runner up spot. He has lost nothing in defeat and has performed as well as any horse in the race with the possible exception of Asterion Forlonge.
Saint Calvados
26th December 2021 – Kempton – In retrospect he was in the best position from the start to the sixth last fence. He was out the back during this period of the race before making a little headway to jump five out next to the eventual winner. He then made a race losing move by taking up the running quickly at the fourth last fence. The notion of this injection of pace from four out to three out was supported by the time comparisons between Ahoy Senor and Frodon and also between the winners of the two grade one contests.
Saint Calvados jumped the third last fence in the lead before tiring quickly enough to jump the next fence in fourth position. I am far from sure that he has the requisite stamina to win a King George; nevertheless, without that early move to the front I strongly suspect he would have finished much closer than he did. This is the second time he has hinted that he may be good enough to succeed at Grade One level. In the 2020 Ryanair Chase he ran Min to a neck and made up a lot of ground on the Mullins horse from the last to the line. On that day his jockey went for a very narrow gap up the inside at the last fence which was a manoeuvre which ultimately cost him momentum plus a few lengths. With a clear run through the latter stages on that occasion I suspect he would have run out a convincing winner over the highly talented Min.
Frodon
26th December 2021 – Kempton – The time comparisons with the Kauto Star Novices Chase plus how it looked to the eye point to him going much too fast for his own good before tiring badly in the home straight. I would suggest that Bryony Frost had little choice in the matter given Frodon’s need to lead. He has tended to down tools when headed in the past and, prior to the race, I felt his only chance of success was to make all the running and presumably his connections came to the same conclusion.
Lostintranslation
26th December 2021 – Kempton – This was his third attempt in this race and for the third time running he fell short of what was required. The soft ground would not have been in his favour, and I will mark him up again the next time he competes on a sound surface.
Asterion Forlonge
26th December 2021 – Kempton – I would mark him up as the best horse in the race on the day the way it panned out for him. He raced next to or just behind Clan Des Obeaux throughout this contest which meant they both raced too close to the brutal gallop. He was briefly outpaced when the pace quickened again at the fourth last fence. He was slow over this obstacle which may have been a blessing given how quickly the horses in front of him went on the turn for home. He still jumped three out in third place alongside the eventual winner who had enjoyed a much kinder trip up until that point of the race. He was in the process of drawing clear of Clan Des Obeaux and closing on Tornado Flyer when he crumpled on landing at the final fence. I doubt he would have beaten the winner if he had stood up; nonetheless, I don’t think there would have been more than a length or two in it which would have meant him finishing at least seven lengths clear of Clan Des Obeaux. He endured a similar trip through the race compared with the Nicholls horse so it is massively to his credit that he would have beaten him by so far.
Asterion Forlonges is clearly a very high-class horse on his day, if not one guaranteed to jump round error free. Previously, he was travelling all over Allaho in the John Durkan Chase at Punchestown when unseating his rider at the third last fence. I thought he stayed the three miles well at Kempton and was more than a little unfortunate to come down at the last. Even at this early stage of the season he looks the one they will all have to beat in the Punchestown Gold Cup assuming this will be his end of season target.
Prior to that, there is the small matter of the Cheltenham Festival and, although his overall form is best when racing right-handed; at the same time he did jump straight and true when finishing third in the 2021 Marsh Novices’ Chase. The way he appeared to be finishing off his race in the King George Chase might encourage his connections to step up in trip and have a crack at the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Mister Fisher
26th December 2021 – Kempton – I doubt the heavy rain was in his favour so would not wish to judge him on this performance.
Minella Indo
26th December 2021 – Kempton – He clearly went too fast for his own good and dropped away quickly from the sixth last fence. If we take it that he needed his first run, then this one performance is an easy one to forgive. He is now as big as 8/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup which looks quite big given how few serious contenders we are likely to see line-up on the day.
Chantry House
26th December 2021 – Kempton – After being hammered down to 3/1 favourite he then never looked happy from an early stage of the race. Prior to the race I felt he had plenty to prove to justify his place at the head of the market. Most of his chase form is in small field relatively uncompetitive races. The upside is that he won the eight runner Marsh Novices’ Chase at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival which augers well for him next March. I am not sure whether he is viewed as more Ryanair or Gold Cup after this performance. One would guess his connections will need to see him perform well in something like the Cotswold Chase to justify a Gold Cup entry.
